Collective2

Exactly. A drawdown is to be expected in any trading system. But a drawdown that lasts from Memorial Day to Labor Day gets depressing. It will be hard to renew the subscription when it comes due this next time.

The current drawdown is not larger in magnitude than the max DD since inception. However, it is much longer than any previous drawdown period. As such the historical equity curve is not very helpful since the system's performance is doing something it hasn't done before. The strategy may or may not bounce back, my guess is that it will. But at any rate I'm not going to risk any further capital before it recovers most of its drawdown. Epistemological risk management.

Bouncing off of March Lows? What an Idiot! This is not some index that follows technical indicators. Jim is making entry and exit decisions based on a strategy that seems to be faultering in current market conditions. The question is whether these conditions are the new normal and whether jim should revisit these rules and decide if some action should be taking.

no suspense, it's going to be another losing trade this time. As someone correctly points out, the problem is not that the developer not changing his strategy. On the contrary, it is because the developer deviate his winning strategy in 2008 , maybe for the reason of luring more subscriber. Caution, caution, ..as the loosing trade mount, the credit of this system is going away... so will be the subscriber.

Been a subscriber for over a year. Equity curve bouncing off end-of-March support. Suggest you get on board now. When 42 breaks on the Qs only the strong hands will be smiling along with Jim.

Like this system because of overall performance and especially the position sizing. Exact percent of total account for each trade is given. Positions rarely exceed 50 per cent It basically is brain dead trading. The system manager provides a trade or no trade signal every trading day so you know he is monitoring the market. I have opted in and out of this system, not because of the system but like today someone stole my credit card number, which is being replaced, and I am going away for a week. Last 2 1/2 months were not good which I think is normal for any system and if you look at the overall performance insignificant. I am probably one of the most nervous traders so the opting in and out is a function of my personality than the system.

Have to add my kudos to this system. The current drawdown has only been about 12% (so far) which is less than half the max drawdown. It looks worse on the chart because C2 charts have a linear scale rather than logarithmic. I also hope the developer does not take the negative reviews too seriously. They are to be expected during a drawdown. Also I do feel for those joining the system just before the drawdown. I know it is no fun. Maybe the best strategy to counter this is to start small and add to the system as you gain profit.

The true test of any system is adversity. The developer has so far resisted calls of the ill-informed to change or revise the system. THAT is an excellent sign. The current drawdown is not abnormal, as can easily be seen by running simple Monte Carlo analysis. To anyone upset at current minor drawdown I say put your money in the bank. You'll have zero drawdown and a lot less stress. Financial maturity is a skill most do not have, as exemplified by the bashers of this system.

Since the system now uses only end-of-day signals "to facilitate manual trading" or facilitate not having to spend time on the system that many are paying good money for, it is being destroyed by a whipsaw market that would require quick intraday signals to be profitable in. I will also agree that the system could be profitable again but not as much as in the past, and only if the market begins to trend once again.

System getting whipsawed at the moment. Seems to require a trend of at least a week or more to be profitable and the market is not providing that right now. Too bad. I also got in just in time to take the four consecutive losses. System will likely return to profitability when the market starts to trend once more but who knows how long it will be before the market chooses to cooperate.

The developer needs to focus and go back the fast trading pace of 2009 and 2008 by taking profit fast and use precise intraday signals for entry/exit. Recent trades have been very slow and all buy high and sell low. Please do not spend so much time on 2 other systems, and asking subcribers to diversify to those. I am willing to pay top dollar for one proven system, but not 3 mediocre systems.

I have been a subscriber to ETF Timer for about 1.5 years and use it to trade one of my accounts. Of course, lately the performance has not been very good. However, in reading recent reviews I think that some of the comments are unwarranted. Due to C2’s limit on the size of comments I am breaking my comments into a few parts. -Not consistent with the ‘market picture’- What is the ‘market picture’? At any moment in time a completely persuasive case can be found, both technically and fundamentally, for an extreme bullish to an extreme bearish case, and everything in between. If the ‘market picture’ is so clear, it should be unnecessary to subscribe to a service such as ETF Timer.

Im not sure this is an effective system in a non-trending market. To be certain, the market will trend in some direction sooner or later but until then, I think the losses will be racked up. Unfortunately I sgned up just before the 1st of the four straight losses.

Only 3 months ago I gave the system 5 stars, but now I am disappointed. The recent consecutive losses is uncharacteristic of the system. I feel the vendor probably is busy taking care of two other newer systems and stopped being nimble with ETF Timer trades.. I wish he goes back to being fast in protecting profits from turning into losses instead of insisting on trades only near end of day. My profits with the system has been cut by 2/3 due to my increasingly higher allocation of funds to the system in recent months. I don't know if the system can survive a few more losses.

I have just started with ETF Timer (3 weeks now) and a little bit disappointed with the entry points. I didn't t expose at 50% of equity as recommended... long positions in a low volume rally was not a good sign for me... and cut off my losses before they sell signal. I will give one more month for this system that seemed to have a good track record. The entry and exit signals in the past trades are not consistent with the market picture.

Obviously this has been a very successful system. However, there has been some very unusual timing on trades over the last 6 months or so. Often the buy side has left me scratching my head wondering why now? And then why not out already or reversed. Not sure if this will work going forward and I personally do not follow all the trades but use it to confirm my own views - as of late it has been less valuable for that.

It appears that in the flat market the System is not sensitive enough to pick out trends, or mini trends as they may be. Given that an exposure of 30 to 50 per cent equity on a consitent basis appears to be rather risky. As a result we are seeing a series of small losses which, as the time progresses, may become the norm and eventually erode the overall equity in the System. While there may be no better system on collective2, this just raises performance concerns should the flat market continue until the rest of the year. I realize that one does not have to trade the System all time if fells uncomfortable now, but still . . . .

System has is in its 4th losing trade in a row which is uncharacteristic of system. Developer insists on holding significant positions through risky events, such as the FOMC statement release. At a minimum, he doesnt even want to reduce exposure into these events. Getting concerned his proprietary indicators are not working as well, or stopped working altogether, in this highly volative environment.

I also like ETF Timer, but I want to correct the logic in the last review. Anytime is a good time to invest in a good system (up or down). A draw down is NOT an indication of a future gain.

This is a great system - better than anything else on C2 that I have tried. My only regret is not putting more equity into the system. The recent draw down is nothing to fret over - happens to all systems - arguably now is one of the best times to invest in ETF Timer as systems tend to mean revert to their normal performance. If you can't handle a 5-10% draw down then all of your money should be in short term treasuries

Ive been with ETF Timer for 2 months, and took all 3 losses. Am i mad ? NO ! why ? because losing is part of the game. If you cannot handle this type of trading, may I recommend that you go see your banker , and put your money in a 5 yrs GIC. STOP WHINNYING !

Good trades are sugar, and bad ones are flour... but if you want to eat the cake, you need the last ingredient: time in the oven. I have just started with this system, but I think Jim has been statiscally inside. Markets are more sensible to the news than before. Go ahead Jim, do not let emotions affect your decisions for the next trade.

Diversify!!! There is enough system here to build a diversify portfolio. I am a REALLY satisfy customer of ETF Timer, and my portfolio is up this month even do ETF timer is down. Plus what can you expect, to run at 65 percent return a year, you need to be able to sustain some drawdown, Otherwise try to build such a sucessfull system, you will see that it is not an easy task.

Obviously there are a few ignorant subscribers. I have been here a couple years and this system is clearly one of the best. If you cant handle a small drawdown you should not trade. Call you mommy!!

I have been a member for over 4 months and have been happy with the programmer. That being said, multiple losing trades in a row is somewhat of a concern and I am curious to see how/if he can make money in a non-trending market. I agree that you have to look at the long-term perspective and how hes done over the past 2 1/2 year, but any more consecutive losing trades and I"m definitely going to have to start questioning following this system moving forward.

Why are you people being so critical of this short term slump. If your playing for the short term you probably should not be in the market anyway. The guy has annualized 66 percent over the last 2 1/2 years and people have the nerve to give him 2 stars for a 2 month slump. How pathetic.

I am a new subscriber and I got the three losing trades in a row, consequently I cannot say I am happy with this system. It is true that markets are in a trading range and its not so easy to trade this kind of patterns. But I noticed that ETF Timer owner is very slow in catching the right trend, apart the fact that he completely wronged the last three. For example, now it is time to go long and it is not clear why staying cash.

Look at all the latest comments, you will realize that trading is not EASY! People expect a system to catch all those ups and downs and when there is a drawdown they would panic. Drawdowns are inevitable for any systems. Higher returns and higher drawdowns. Jim is doing a great job in handling these periods.

The system metrics show a 15 percent probability of a 10 percent loss. Seems we are in the middle of one. It looks like Jim will tighten the stop loss which is the right thing to do until we get back on track. Not a good idea to change the system due to a slump. In a contrarian sense, I think the market will find a trend now that the crowd declaring a trendless market.

As a newer subscriber so far this has been an extremely disappointing system. Obviously the historical results are impressive, but having joined recently and matching the starting equity...being down well over $10K in short order is brutal. To all those who have gains from the system that are being eaten into, much easier to stomach than it coming straight out of your pocket. The timing of the last 2 trades have been very questionable imo.

The developer has an amazing track record for 2008/2009. But, none of us have any idea what he is doing, other than it is probably trend-based. We had a decline, then a rally of historic proportions. The key question the developer should comment on is: based on his knowledge of the system, how does HE expect the system to perform in a choppy, non-trending market. Seems to me the system is performing poorly at present...) I also think he needs to explain a bit more what he is doing, when the system works, and when it is expected to breakdown, so that we can make informed decisions rather than just "having faith in him".

Generally I like this system ETF Timer. However I think the Signal provider is limiting his System, by mostly only giving signals near the end of the day as Smart Phones mobile trading is now possible. I was also a Bit miffed, by the timing of latest signal, ie 21st Jul, when there is so much uncertainty regarding Market direction following the imminent European Stress tests due Friday 23rd Jul.

I think it is somewhat funny that a previous poster stated how the system is a trending system only and a couple of trades dont mean anything. I am very impressed witj the results. te. This system is up 20 percent YTD. Is the Nasdaq up that much? The results of this system since inception is speaks for itself..

It seems the system is more of a trend following system than a range bound system(buy/sell based on overbought/oversold conditions). The system performs extremely well on Strong Down trend year (2008) and Strong Up trend year (2009). However, the system can choke on range bound(no clear trend) market, such as year 2010. On 07/06/2010, market clearly showed a double bottom for QQQQ and very likely to rebound for the following days. However, the developer insists to short the market at that point and ended a losing trade.

Past results is not a good indicator of the future and the last 2 or 3 or even 30 or so trades is not a significant amount of trades to draw any conclusions about performance.

Two loosing trades in raw! Previous trade was very positive and became looser @ the end. Is the system stop working??

Great system. In February I set aside $160,000, the listed value of the system at that time. I caught up by buying the number of shares owned by the plan at that time and have since followed each buy and sell recommendation. Twice my emotions got the better of me and I sold prematurely and ended up buying back at a higher price.) In the four months as a member I am up over $43,000. I wish the rest of my money was doing as well. This system fits my emotions quite well.

I've been with ETF Timer for about 6 months and have been very impressed with its results. It has several aspects MOST systems do not have such as: 1) Excellent Equity Curve with reasonable drawdowns. 2) Few trades for a swing trading system that allows for manual or auto trade options. 3) Exceptional communication from the developer. You know why he took action. 4) The monthly subscription is still very reasonable. I have yet to find a system with such an outstanding risk/reward ratio and a developer with an even temperment. Believe it or not, he does not boast about his system. He provides helpful performance overviews, that's the most I've seen.

After subscribing for 14 months, my only regret is not allocating more money to this system. The system is easy to trade and trades very liquid ETFs, so slippage is not an issue.

I started Autotrading this about 5 months ago. It has been relatively placid, which I dont mind. It has been profitable. I am pleased with the experience. This is not a get rich quick scheme, but it has produced steady results so far.

The last review on this system is completely baseless. Ive been a subscriber for quite a while and the system manager is not taking on any more risk than in the past. BTW, the system is only 65 percent invested not 85 as the reviewer claims.

Time to move on.. I recommend this system during a trending market, however that is not the current condition. In order to capture his past performance the manager is taking on greater risk. 85 percent of a portfolio in qld which is a double leveraged etf is similar to hold 170 percent of qqqq. If you have access to the trade history, take a look how we made money verses what he has done the past 3-4 month. It has been a difficult decision to exit, but I will sit on sidelines until the market starts trending again.

This system has an admirable equity curve and two years of good results to back it up. Any negative comments I've seen in chat and forums usually come from other vendors whose own work has significantly lower profits,if any.

This system is perfect for my IRA account. If you think buy and hold is dead then this system is the answer. Makes money equally in up or down markets. Also, just the right number of trades and he has been spot on with his calls.

Developer very responsive with updates and replies to questions. No use of margin, which I prefer. Fairly steady rate of positive returns with little risk of drawdowns of 14% or more. Subscription rate and commissions are relatively low, helping the overall net rate of return.

Well managed system, easy to trade, friendly vendor, an equity curve that is about as good as one could realistically expect. Am I missing something? Yes - I was on the sidelines for a bit too long. IMHO you will struggle to fnd a better system on C2.

I'm very happy with ETF Timer. Unlike so many other vendors here who talk a good game (way too much talking) while their systems are junk, this vendor remains quiet and lets his systems' performance do his talking for him. A stellar year in 2008 and a fine year in 2009. Well done!

This system is consistently excellent. It makes money almost every month. It recovers nicely from small losses. It is exactly what I dreamed of.

System vendor is professional and communicates regularly with his subscribers. The system's low-stress, patient methodology of trading combined with its superior track record and low cost elevates ETF Trader to the top tier of systems on C2. Highly recommended.

ETF timer is a well managed, outstanding system with an excellent track record. You are provided with daily updates and your questions are answered within minutes!